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Writing a hypothesis for a research paper UK

How thin the reed? Generalizing from 'Worms at Work' - The GiveWell Blog How thin the reed? Generalizing from 'Worms at Work' - The GiveWell Blog
The working paper by Kevin Croke, Eric Hsu, and authors of Worms at Work. The paper looks ... various UK health charities, Childline, Samaritans, FGM charities; UK governments nudge ... And long-term research tends to take a long time. So I close by sugg

Writing a hypothesis for a research paper UK

Discouragingly, when i scan the summary of findings for the main comparison and campbells corresponding tables, confidence intervals for outcomes other than weight look more firmly centered on zero. After i mapped the schools, it hit me i could make two-dimensional versions of my earlier graphs, slicing the data not by elevation, but by longitude and latitude. So i spent some time scrutinizing this discountmore precisely, the discounts of individual givewell staffers.

If we accept the long-term impact estimates from worms at work, we can still question whether those results carry over to other settings. If the benefit of mass deworming is almost too small to detect, it might be almost too small to matter. Your argument at the moment seems to be well, why shouldnt this be true.

Can you point to a source that explains the probability mass being highest at the point estimate? This is news to me. Struck by this suggestion that low initial weight predicted impact, and mindful of the meta-analytic consensus that deworming weight, i doubled back to the original worms study to ask a final question. The problem with that is that since i tested about 20 hypotheses, i should expect about one to manifest as statistically significant just by chance (at p 0.

After i confronted the impossibility of directly testing whether initial worm burden influenced impact, i thought of one more angle from which to attack the question, if obliquely. I truncated the fit at 1270 meters beyond which the confidence intervals explode for lack of much data. Contemplating the exploration to this point, i was struck to appreciate that while elevation might not directly matter for the impacts of deworming, like a saw through a log, introducing it exposed the grain of the data.

If we find no short-term impact on certain indicators of nutrition, that should make claims about long-term earnings gains harder to believe. I think you may have the wrong hyperlink for the first study (the guatemalan protein-drink study) did you mean to link to hoddinott et al, lancet, 2008? That one is actually a very useful analogy it showed experimental evidence of short-term anthropometric changes before the long-term productivity gains, which is unlike the kenyan deworming study. For example, if we hypothesize that flawed randomization put schools whose children were destined to earn more in adulthood disproportionately in the treatment group, then we need another story to explain why this asymmetry only occurred among the schools with the heaviest worm loads.

Perhaps you can elaborate on why you believe that without a clear causal mechanism, we should not support mass deworming. The spatially smoothed impact regressions, and the spatially smoothed averages of baseline variables graphed next, are plotted using the same bandwidth and kernel as before, except that now distance is measured in degrees, in two dimensions. Im trying to convey that idea while speaking to two audiences, expert and non-expert. All the assessment of causal mechanism hangs on this link, but i dont think its fully addressed. I agree that a verified causal theory adds credibility and that in general it is not an absolute requirement.


School president censors science « JoNova


Writing a paper does not achieve consensus, it presents an idea. Most papers are ... of government-financed research. Can you find just ONE paper that doesn't have that ... So there's that hypothesis out the window. If you don't take account of these fa

Writing a hypothesis for a research paper UK

How thin the reed? Generalizing from 'Worms at Work' - The GiveWell Blog
The working paper by Kevin Croke, Eric Hsu, and authors of Worms at Work. The paper looks ... various UK health charities, Childline, Samaritans, FGM charities; UK governments nudge ... And long-term research tends to take a long time. So I close by suggesting two strategies ... That hypotheses ought ... ·
Writing a hypothesis for a research paper UK By eyeballing the map, The varied shading reminds us that within each band, probability is highest near the center. If we accept the long-term impact estimates from worms at work, we can still question whether those results carry over to other settings, Were any short-term weight gains in busia concentrated among kids who started out the most underweight? This could link short-term impacts on weight with long-term impacts on earnings, making both more credible. In the case of weightwhich is among the best-studied outcomes and more likely to respond to treatment in the short runcroke et al. Nevertheless, my investigation of the first link in the theory led me to some interesting discoveries. If you don't take account of these fa. On the positive side (as far too many rude things have been said in the world of deworming research), i really like that you are calling for more research to be done into long-term impacts of deworming, and i think you could greatly expand on these sensible and pragmatic ways forwardwould you have any interest in co-writing an opinion piece in this vein? As ive suggested previously, if the worms at work paper is so vital and highly-valued for givewell, why dont you fund several teams of independent scientists to do replications based on the same raw data? You could ensure that they had produced pre-analysis plans in advance of examining the data, though the replicators would need to see the survey instrument and have a broad indication of what hypothesis they were aiming to test.
  • School president censors science « JoNova


    As i say, the evidence is circumstantial two quantities of primary interestinitial worm burden and subsequent impactrelate to elevation in about the same way. Worms-like setting, we should expect twice as many children to have benefited, doubling the average weight gain from 0. By the way, eub and alex, there are studies that link health in childhood to productivity in adulthood. This information could influence how we extrapolate from the studies we have to the contexts where mass deworming may be undertaken today. First, data gathered from many locales shows how, for each worm type, .

    In sum, the statistical consensus on short-term impacts on nutritional status does not render implausible the long-term benefits reported out of busia. In my view, none of these specific challenges knocks worms at work off its givewell-constructed pedestal. The cochrane review estimates that targeting treatment at kids with soil-transmitted worms increased weight by 0. To construct a confidence interval analytically requires a probability distribution, almost always the t or z, fundamentally because of the central limit theorem, by way of the. If we know two things about the pattern of infection, such as the fraction of kids who have it and their average intensity, we can mathematically identify a unique member of this family of distributions.

    They point out that only between 2 and 16 percent of the population experience moderate to severe intensity infections in the studies in our sample that report this information, so their central estimate of 0. Mostly it cites natural experiments, but the first is an experiment guatemalan children who benefited from an experimental daily delivery of free, high-protein drinks over many years in the 1970s grew up to experience (in 200204). The first, as it happens, is more evidence that is easier-explained if we assume that the worms experiment largely worked, the theme of the. But pooling them should not cause bias if schools are reasonably well mixed in elevation, as they appear to be. This involved analyzing whether among schools around 1140 meters, deworming raised wages then the same around 1150 meters, and so on. But that does not undercut the apposition as i phrased it in my reply to eub what does 0. Motivated by the theory that elevation mattered for impact because of differences in pre-experiment infection rates, i then graphed how those rates varied with elevation, among the subset of schools with the needed data. So i spent some time scrutinizing this discountmore precisely, the discounts of individual givewell staffers. It gave me insight into a relationship that i could not access directly, between initial worm load and subsequent benefit. Im trying to convey that idea while speaking to two audiences, expert and non-expert.

    Writing a paper does not achieve consensus, it presents an idea. Most papers are ... of government-financed research. Can you find just ONE paper that doesn't have that ... So there's that hypothesis out the window. If you don't take account of these facts, you ... There are estimates around on how ... ·

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    During a  run by harold alderman and coauthors, the 14,940 children in the treatment group gained an average 2. If deworming in southern busia county, kenya, in the late 1990s permanently improved the lives of some children, what does that tell us about the impact of deworming programs today, from sub-saharan africa to south asia? How safely can we generalize from this study? Benefit from mass dewormingand if it doesnt help much in the short run, how can it make a big difference in the long run? That where mass deworming is done today, typically fewer children need treatment than in the busia experiment. Going back to two dimensions, this graph more directly checks the relationship i glimpsed above, by showing how the impact of deworming on wage earnings varied with childrens pre-treatment weight-to-age z-score of underweight, benefited enough from deworming treatment that it permanently lifted their developmental trajectories Buy now Writing a hypothesis for a research paper UK

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    The next graph is the same except that it only counts infections that are moderate or heavy according to who definitions interestingly, restricting to serious cases enhances the similarity between the infection curves, just above, and the earlier. For example, those in the delta to the extreme southwest probably needed it since all their neighbors did. To determine the best discount, wed need to know precisely what characterized the children within the worms experiment who most benefited over the long termperhaps lower weight, or greater infection with a particular parasite species. Facing less need, we should expect these charities activities to do less good than is found in worms at work Writing a hypothesis for a research paper UK Buy now

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    In aggregate, i think my coworkers blend the discounts implied by the prevalence and intensity perspectives. That hypotheses ought to probed afresh in other data, this time with pre-registered transparency. Maybe the 199798 el nino, which , exacerbated the conditions for the spread of worms, especially at low elevations. It concludes treating children known to have worm infection may have some nutritional benefits for the individual. But i emphasize that my earlier findings revolving around elevation are more confident, because they came out of a small and theoretically motivated set of hypotheses.

    Nevertheless, my investigation of the first link in the theory led me to some interesting discoveries Buy Writing a hypothesis for a research paper UK at a discount

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    If we then assume that the distribution of infection intensity is in the (two-parameter) negative binomial family, fixing two statisticsprevalence and average intensity as implied by its quadratic relationship with prevalencesuffices to determine the distribution. One conceptual problem in this approach is that intensity in eggsgram is not a natural count variable despite being modeled as such. That hypotheses ought to probed afresh in other data, this time with pre-registered transparency. The cochrane review estimates that targeting treatment at kids with soil-transmitted worms increased weight by 0. Mostly it cites natural experiments, but the first is an experiment guatemalan children who benefited from an experimental daily delivery of free, high-protein drinks over many years in the 1970s grew up to experience (in 200204) Buy Online Writing a hypothesis for a research paper UK

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    In the modified regression, the impact could vary with elevation in a straight-line way, as shown in this graph of the impact of deworming in childhood on log wage earnings in early adulthood as a function of school elevation the grey bands around the central line show confidence intervals rather as in the earlier graph on weight gains. But neither defense gets at what matters most for givewell, which is whether small short-term benefits make big long-term earnings gains implausible. If we accept the long-term impact estimates from worms at work, we can still question whether those results carry over to other settings. The spatially smoothed impact regressions, and the spatially smoothed averages of baseline variables graphed next, are plotted using the same bandwidth and kernel as before, except that now distance is measured in degrees, in two dimensions Buy Writing a hypothesis for a research paper UK Online at a discount

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    So the pattern i unearthed in the second phase should perhaps not be viewed as proof of anything, but as the basis for a hypothesis that, for a proper test, requires fresh data from another setting. So, in an honestly bayesian framework, the more we know about mechanism, the more profoundly skeptical ones prior about mass deworming would need to be for ones mind not to be changed by that knowledge. Struck by this suggestion that low initial weight predicted impact, and mindful of the meta-analytic consensus that deworming weight, i doubled back to the original worms study to ask a final question. But the straighter lines in the second graph mean that a 50 drop in intensity (eggsgram) corresponds to a 50 drop in the number of children with serious disease Writing a hypothesis for a research paper UK For Sale

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    Height responds less to recent health changes than weight, so analysis of impacts on height should have lower power. As a general matter, it cannot be optimal that only the original authors can test hypotheses against their data, as is so often the case. . This it expresses as for weight, overall there was no evidence of an effect. I directly tested the hypothesis that elevation mattered for impact by interacting elevation with the treatment indicator in a key worms at work regression.

    As you know, this is the study that underpins the later worms at work paper. I dont mean to be obtuse its just that i dont know if the weight gain is in muscle, fat, organs, maybe even the brain (as it might be in the toddlers) For Sale Writing a hypothesis for a research paper UK

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    First, this graph shows like the first table in this post, this graph shows that hookworms lived in nearly all the children, while roundworm and whipworm were each in about half. In the first, motivated by a particular theory, i brought a narrow set of hypotheses to the data. Z-test), which is to say, they do not reject with any strength. The varied shading reminds us that within each band, probability is highest near the center. If new evidence were to emerge that indicated mass deworming interventions dont always achieve the things that proponents hope for, at some point givewell would have to consider increasing this offset presumably that is how bayesians respond to new evidence? Oh sorry, i fixed the link Sale Writing a hypothesis for a research paper UK

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